Author: reckoningmachines

Github source code here our repo contains a work in progress open source project which we plan to develop into a library a python class wrapper for scikit-learn predict and predict_proba for walk forward backtesting in time series analysis python’s scikit-learn classifiers have predict_proba and predict functions which can apply a fitted (trained) model against…

It occurs that much of the distance between Quant and Fundamental investing can be bridged with better user interfaces. For example, in our previous post about “long probability” for a given stock, an additional and informative view of the binary classifier is the coefficients that make up the final result. We’re deliberately using a simple…

https://github.com/reckoning-machines/financial-forecasting/ Work in progress – A library of objects to manage financial data such as prices, exogenous and market, ratios, and betas. Initially pulling data from Financial Modeling Prep and the St Louis FRED APIs (links below). In financial forecasting, everything begins with a canonical calendar, which should contain fiscal quarter, calendar quarter, quarter end…

In this example, we use the betas table derived in the previous example to demonstrate a machine learning – based time series prediction of single stock alpha vs the market. We are using https://www.modelbit.com/ to host an api endpoint to generate “next day” alpha predictions.* With a modelbit account, you can paste the following code…

In our second blog post, we will take a quick look at another processing step, this time related to stock and index prices rather than text. At Reckoning Machines we’ve built pipelines to ingest transcripts, filings, macro economic data, and prices. Post processing of prices includes building the foundation for a machine learning approach to…

Public company conference calls are held quarterly, usually 10–15 days after the quarter end, and in a format which starts with management presenting the quarters’ results, followed by a series of analyst questions and management answers. In this example we look at JP Morgan’s most recent Q1 2024 conference call from April 12, 2024. A…